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< Previous9 Revenue from tuition and fees (student-generated) has been in a long, multi-year decline. For example, between 2017-18 and 2020-21, tuition revenue declined from $7.9 million to $6.4 million –a major decline of $1.5 million. The Plan for reversing this downward trend includes: (1) stabilization: look to property tax growth to offset tuition revenue losses; (2) committing resources: athletics to bring in students from outside the area; (3) reductions in expenditures: reduced General Fund operating expenses from $16.1 million in 2017-18 to $14.2 million in 2020-21; and, (4) increase tuition rates: a 4.5% increase for 2022-23. It is too early to tell if 2021-22 will mark the bottom of the College’s tuition revenue decline. However, assumptions built into the 2022-23 budget include a 5% increase in tuition and fee revenue. Demographics In the 2021-2022 academic year, the primary source of students came from the combined primary counties of Emmet, Charlevoix, Cheboygan and Otsego which accounted for 89% of all students. Emmet County accounted for 38% of students alone. In the 2021-2022 academic year, the male-to-female ratio was around 1:2. 35% of the student body were male and 65% were female, which differs slightly from than the national average for community colleges with 40% of U.S. community college students identifying as male and 60% identifying as female 1 (National Center forEducation Statistics -IPEDS Data Explorer, 2020). It is believed that the success of the Nursing program plays a large role in the male/female demographic. Other 2021-2022 NCMC Student Population Demographics include: • Gender o 35% Male o 65% Female • Race and Ethnicity o 83.3% White o 10.1% Students of Color ▪ 3.3% American Indian or Alaska Native ▪ 3% Two or more races ▪2% Hispanic of any race ▪1% Asian ▪1% Black or African American ▪ .1% Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander o 6.5% Race or ethnicity unknown o .1% Nonresident alien • Age Range o 31% Under 18 o 26% 18-19 o 10% 20-21 o 6% 22-24 o 8% 25-29 o 6% 30-34 o 4% 35-39 o 5% 40-49 o 3% 50-64 o 1% 65 and Over Enrollment10 Enrollment has declined over the last five years. From academic year 2020 to 2021, NCMC headcount declined by 8%. However, this decline reflects the national decline of 7.8% in community college enrollment and is slightly lower than the average decline in Michigan community college enrollment of 9.8%(National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2021).In the 2021-2022 academic year, enrollment stabilized at around 25,500 credit hours and 2086 students. In the Winter 2022 semester, 1,654 students were enrolled for 11,690 credit hours (average of 7.0 credit hours/student). Several factors in NCMC’s enrollment include the departure of the Young Americans, shifting PE Audit students to a fee-based model in CCE and COVID-19 pandemic impacts. When looking at non-dual enrolled students, we find enrollments in all programs have declined over the last five academic years (AY). This includes the Associate of Arts, Associate of Science, Associate of Applied Science, Associate of General Studies, Certificates, Certificates of Development, and Personal Interest (Figure 1). Figure 1 In the last five years, the Associate of General Studies, the Associates of Applied Science, and the Personal Interest programs accounted for 71% of all non-dual student enrollment (Figure 2). Figure 2. In general—with the exception of a decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic—dual enrollment has been on the rise since 2014. In that year, 740 students were enrolled in about 6965 credit hours. In 2021, around 790 students were 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 20142015201620172018201920202021 Non-Dual Student Program Enrollment by Academic Year (AY 2014-2021) AAAASAGSASCEDCERTPersonal InterestPhysical Education 14% 26% 26% 5% 4% 5% 19% 1% Non-Dual Enrollment by Program (2017-2021) AAAASAGSASCEDCERTPersonal InterestPhysical Education11 enrolled in about 6,660 credit hours. The majority of dual students (87%) enroll in the Associate of General Studies (Figure 3). Figure 3. PLEASE NOTE: This enrollment analysis separates dual and non-dual students. Dual Students–Are high school students under Michigan Dual Enrollment guidelines (includes any students that are part of our early college programs -Boyne City, Petoskey Gaylord). Non-Dual Students–Are students that have graduated from high school, have a GED or a non-high school graduate at least 18 years of age. Federal (IPEDS) and State reporting guidelines requireus to track and report on only degree seeking students. In their definition,duals are considered non-degree seeking; therefore,both groups are tracked separately. Tuition rates for dual students differs from regular tuition rates,so separately tracking the two groups provides more accuraterevenueestimates. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 20142015201620172018201920202021 Dual Student Program Enrollment by Academic Year (AY 2014- 2021) AAAASAGSASCEDCERT12 ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN The College researches current trends involving the expectations and needs of students, and the changing political, economic, social, technological, educational and demographic environment, as well as the many stakeholders within its ecosystem. The trends and data are focused on key external environmental factors that NCMC needs to understand to develop, update and implement its strategic plan. This knowledge informs the annual planning process to set the direction for the College. What follows is a compilation of trends that influence and shape our community college environment: • During the past 12 months, following the height of the pandemic, higher education finds itself standing at a multi- lane crossroads. The most consistent trend is that the industry must change dramatically to meet the needs of students, the economy and the many stakeholders within its ecosystem. Innovative institutions will survive and thrive. Those that continue to look through the rearview mirror will likely be threatened by obsolescence (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • Community colleges are experiencing significant drops in traditional enrollment. The number of younger students (i.e.,through high school dual enrollment or early college programs) may be masking the real degree of this decline. (Attachment 1). This trend is expected to continue for Emmet County according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates through 2045. (Attachment 2). •In the 2021-2022 academic year, the primary source of students came from the combined primary counties of Emmet, Charlevoix, Cheboygan and Otsego which accounted for 89% of all students.In the 2021-2022 academic year:EmmetCountyaccountedfor38%ofstudents,CharlevoixCountyaccountedfor21%of students,CheboyganCountyaccountedfor20%ofstudents,andOtsegoCountyaccountedfor11%of students.The population of North Central’sprimary service area is aging. In 2022, the median age is45.5 in Emmet County, 48.6 in Charlevoix County, 51.1 in Cheboygan County, and 42.3 in Otsego County. The median age for each county is expected to rise through 2045 with deaths outnumbering births, net zero population migration, and a declining population growth rate(World Population Review -Emmet County, 2022). Although Michigan’s population size is expected to decline through 2045, the State of Michigan projects a slight increase through 2030 due to an increase in out-of-state workers who will support the aging population. This trend is projected in Northern Michigan as well. This influx in workers will continue to drive the slight increase in county taxpayer support as home prices continue their upward trend since the 2009 recession(State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget/Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives et al., n.d.). • Despite a declining growth rate in NCMC’s primary service area, total population is projected to increase by 5% from 2020 to 2034. The county with the greatest increase in population size is Otsego County at 14%, followed by Emmet County (5%) and Charlevoix County (3%). Cheboygan County’s total population is projected to decrease by 2% from 2020 to 2035. Out of the college-going population in these counties, traditional college students (aged 15-25) are projected to decrease from 2020 to 2035, except for Otsego County. The population of adult learners (ages 30-49) is projected to increase across NCMC’s primary service area (State of Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget/Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives et al., n.d.). • The pivot to online learning has been a sea of change for higher education. The pandemic laid bare both the challenges and opportunities of remote learners. The lens through which programs are developed is no longer focused in one direction. Rather, the view is panoramic with many choices of delivery methods (Higher Learning Commission, 2022).13 • The demand for flexibility and access is growing. Colleges and universities need to respond while focusing on quality assurance (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • Many institutions are partnering with Online Program Managers (OPMs) to increase capacity that institutions do not have on their own (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • There is an exponential rise of micro-credentials. Non-degree programs and certificates are also on the rise. Many learners are choosing these alternative offerings that may or may not lead toward a degree. Therefore, alternative providers and short-term credential programs are becoming essential for colleges to provide (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • Middleskill jobs are becoming more respected, attractive and lucrative. New-collar jobs are positions that require some vocational or skills training (e.g.,tech, nursing, mortgage industry) but not a bachelor’s degree and typically pay far better than blue-collar roles. NCMC expects an increase in community demand for programs in nursing, allied health, public safety and information systems. • Blue-collar jobs require higher skill levels due to rapid advances in technology, and workforce demand exceeds supply. NCMC expects an increase in community demand for programs in manufacturing and skilled trades. • The rising cost of traditional degrees.Student loandebtnow exceeds $1.75trillionas of April 2022.In a regular year, the total student loan debt grows sixtimes faster than the nation’s economy, but in 2021’s fourth quarter, the total declined for the first time in history.This has become a social and economic issue as debt repayment takes priority over investing, home buying, marriage and having children(Hanson, 2022). • Confidence in the value of higher education is eroding and skepticism is increasing. It is the end of an era when degrees were seen as a proxy for skills. Many students coming out of universities are over-qualified but not necessarily over skilled. A greatnumber are not job ready. • Access to community colleges is growing due to Promise-type programs that are sweeping the nation. (Caveat: This does not mean college is free. Additional expenses such as books, fees, housing, childcare, transportation, etc. are not covered.) • Housing and food insecurity are daily worries for some students. The fragility of this student population segment is gaining greater awareness and attention. • Students are reporting a large increase in mental health issues, exacerbated by the pandemic (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • Faculty and staff report a high level of burnout, and emotional exhaustion coming out of the pandemic (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • Workers now expect flexible hours and the ability to work from a distance. The work environment will never be the same, and higher education will need to continue to evolve accordingly (Higher Learning Commission, 2022). • Amid a historically tight labor market, more workers are feeling empowered to seek new opportunities, knowing that they are in demand. In November 2021, the U.S. clocked 4.5 million worker resignations, the highest quit rate on record (Cox, 2022).These evolving employee expectations and nation-wide worker shortage will impact the College’s retention and culture and force a re-examination of its working arrangements and compensation structure. • Frustration is increasing among employers and legislators with the slow pace of response and change in higher education.14 • Entire occupations and jobs are expanding and contracting, and the skill set required for individual jobs is also rapidly changing (the Age of Acceleration). The educational journey will never end; adults will need to step in and out of learning experiences to gain skills and credentials that will be their currency in the job market(Selingo, 2018). • Advocates of job training often point to two related trends as crucial for creating an AI-ready workforce: online education and “lifelong learning.” They believe that with the proliferation of online education platforms –both free and paid –displaced workers will have unprecedented access to training materials and instruction for new jobs. These platforms –video streaming sites, online coding academies, and so on –will give workers the tools they need to become lifelong learners, constantly updating their skills and moving into new professions that are not yet subject to automation. This is the new environment in which the College competes.Workers displaced in the next recession will not automatically be returning to us for their retooling.How do we retain our competitive advantage in this environment and be the educational resource of choice? • The responsibility to resolve vexing economic, social and environmental challenges has largely moved down from national and state governments to cities and communities. It has also migrated horizontally from the public sector to networks of public, privateand civic leaders(Katz & Nowak, 2018). Investigation into opportunities to strengthen and diversify our regional economy in the following key areas is being pursued by Blue Ribbon Advisory Committee (BRAC),recently renamed to The President’s Commission,action teams: Healthcare, Hospitality, Manufacturing, Skilled Trades/IT, and Lifelong Learning. Community colleges must be willing to reconsider the status quo to navigate the future most effectively. • Think beyond the core populations thatare currently enrolling. Instead of managing declining enrollments, community colleges must create a new continuous (serial) learning relationship with students of all ages. • Commit to innovation which is the key to thriving in the current higher education transformation. • Invent a new pricing structure and new payment methods for the delivery of educational services and products. Consider variable tuition, continual learning subscriptions, frequent learner perks, etc. • Create stronger holistic, extra-academic support systems for student success (e.g.,child care, transportation, housing, mental health), braiding social services into student services. • Create or curate a menu of courses, experiences, degrees, certificates, badges, micro-credentials and pathways for students. Think modular and flexible. Some will be offered by non-traditional partners (employers or other respected validators). These “menus” need to be eligible for financial aid (federal aid, local scholarships, employer-sponsorship, etc.). • Work more effectively with employers and “backwards map” curriculum to jobs as opposed to forward mapping from “old” degrees. • Adapt to the changing expectations of students by adopting a consumer mindset. Future students expect colleges to function like businesses, demanding convenience, personalization and quality. • Advance learning opportunities to be entertaining, immersive, purpose-driven, and experiential. • Expect faculty to stay abreast and be comfortable with new instructional technologies and changes. • Seek to be vehicles of societal transformation, preparing students to solve complex global issues. • Provide shorter, more compact programs to provide needed knowledge and skills fast. • Allow students to master a skill or competency at their own pace.15 • Have buildings/classrooms, technology, human resources to support the expectations of tomorrow’s higher education environment. • Rethink the college workplace environment. Retention and attraction of employees has been greatly impacted by the lessons learned during the pandemic. They expect flexible hours, equitable pay and the ability to work from a distance. North Central must be open to the changing expectations of students by adopting a consumer mindset. Everything that is currently considered “traditional” in higher education must be on the table for potential change. Change can be difficult for organizations, but today’s higher education transformation will not reward those institutions that hold on too tightly to the status quo. To be a higher ed leader now, an institution must embrace innovation in ways that open doors to intriguing new learning opportunities. These changes may be somewhat painful for our institution to make, but ultimately, they will greatly benefit students. From2020to 2022was a timeof turmoil and transition. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the pace of economic transformation and further revealed the college’s outdated systems and course delivery options. Furthermore, the opportunity gaps for rural learners without access to reliable high-speed internet has widened. The pandemic has exacerbated NCMC’s current deficiencies and swung the pendulum from institutional controlof higher education to consumer control, whichhas greatly hastened our focus on innovation, agility and thoughtful risk-taking to attract an already shrinking pool of students. Opportunity Gaps for ALICE population learners and underserved students focus efforts on eliminating the disparities of the opportunities available to these students by striving for equitable access and outcomes. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released itsreporton spring 2021 enrollment during the COVID-19 pandemic, which includes data from most institutions in the country. Higher education enrollment fell to new lows, showing the persistent impact of COVID-19 related disruptions. Overall spring enrollment fell to 16.9 million from 17.5 million, marking a one-year decline of 3.5 percent or 603,000 students, seven times worse than the decline a year earlier(National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2021). Undergraduate students accounted for all of the decline, with a 4.9 percent drop or 727,000 students. In contrast, graduate enrollment jumped by 4.6 percent, adding more than 124,000 students. While every institution sector saw undergraduate enrollment dip duringspring2021, community colleges remain hardest hit (-9.5% or 476,000 fewer students). Over 65 percent of the total undergraduate enrollment losses occurred in the community college sector. Among all age groups, traditional college-age students declined the most (-5%, age 18-24), largely attributable to their steep losses at community colleges (-13.2%). Adult students (25 or older), on the other hand, show a 2 to 3 percent gain at public four-year and private nonprofit four-year colleges. Enrollment among male students continued to fall more steeply than female students (400,000 fewer male students and 203,000 fewer female students compared with last spring). NCMC’s Fall2021 enrollment was down 5.9percent, which places the college 27 th of the 27community colleges in Michigan in Percent Change in Headcount reporting.16 SWOT ANALYSIS The SPAT committee(individual SPAT committee members listed on page 21) spent several months performing a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis. Using data from the environmental scan, this analysis provides information on how the College’s strengths and weaknesses relate to external opportunities and threats. Strengths • Nursing, Allied Health and Public Safety Programming • Residence hall (we have one, but it’s dated) • Strong reputation in the community • Natural Area • Harris Gardens • Value/Affordability • Strong relationship with LTBB of Odawa Indians • Financials Weaknesses • Formal mandates o HLC requirements o Two-year charter (can’t offer bachelor’s degrees) o US Department of Education –decline in federal and state aid • Lack of online/distance education programs • Location/visibility • Aging physical plant • Current financial resources for capital expenditures are limited • Non/Under Performing Programs • Few flexible scheduling options • Dated organizational structure • Employee Morale • Current IT infrastructure and support • Stale program offerings • Faculty and staff tied to the status-quo –need to adopt a change mindset Opportunities • Grow non-credit offerings through CCE to fulfill lifelong learning needs of aging population • Create or curate a menu of short-term courses, experiences, degrees, certificates, badges, micro-credentials and pathways for studentsthrough expanded CCE offerings • ExpandNorth Central Community College’staxing district • Build new residence halls and leverage our on-campus living options during summerfor the local community • Increase campus activity during the summer months • Establish lifelong relationships with learners • Leverage creation of a College mascot and NJCAA Sports to drive traditional enrollment • Advance learning opportunities to be entertaining, immersive, purpose-driven, and experiential. • Have buildings/classrooms, technology, human resources to support the expectations of tomorrow’s learner • Adapt to the changing expectations of students by adopting a consumer mindset. Future students expect colleges to function like businesses, demanding convenience, personalization and quality. • Commit to innovation in program offerings, which is the key to thriving in the current higher education transformation. • Plan for adaptability in all areas of the college to more effectively adjust to unforeseen changes in the external environment.17 Threats • Declining K-12 population • Aging population • Declining state and federal financial support • Increased competition • Slow pace of change in higher education (typically) • Rising student debt • Housing and food insecurity • Post-pandemic mental health issues • Lack of Child Care • Lack of internet access in areas outside of town amid need for greater use of technology enabled classrooms • Students requiring higher degree of supportive counseling services • Limited pay differential between degree/no degree • The proliferation of online education platforms –both free and paid • Potential long-term changes in educational delivery models and expectations resulting from the coronavirus pandemic • Evolving employee expectations for flexible working arrangements and nation-wide worker shortage will impact the College’s retentionandculture and force a re-examination of its working arrangements and compensation structure.18 2019 MASTER PLAN North Central Michigan College’s five-year Master Plan serves as a basis for engaging the Michigan Capital Outlay Program and identifies specific projects of priority for the College, the Region and the State of Michigan. The Master Plan further provides insight and ideas beyond the typical five-year period. With new and increasing pressures at all levels of educationto support its students, it is relevant to look beyond the five-year period and provide a flexible road map focusing on educating people of all ages. Emerging industries, innovation, technology, business structures, health-related professions and regional specific needs will demand this. The Master Plan aids in addressing and supporting several strategic issues affecting higher education in the State of Michigan, and particularly North Central: • How do we respond to demographic projections of decreasing enrollment? • How do we develop innovative and relevant academic and applied programs? • How do we maintain an attractive, sustainable environment for our Campus and our Community? • Is the organizational structure best suited to fit the needs of delivering education? • How do we create a greater sense of pride among NCMC’s students, employees, visitors and alumni? • Does North Central Michigan College have the resources to stay as we are, or do we need to prepare and adapt for the future? Recommendations • Document current educational programs and enrollment to those programs. • Identify growingeducational programs that require additional space. • Identify emergingeducational programs that require additional space. • Identify any real or perceived limitations of the facilities and suggest corrective measures to support the educational goals of the students. • Identify and define solutions for observed areas of needed maintenance. • Identify and suggest solutions for necessary infrastructure upgrades. • Identify barriers that limit accessibility to facilities due to topography and older limiting constructed environments. Five-Year Schedule: Priorities 1.Develop iconic identity signage at Atkins & Howard. 2.Provide a new addition for the Nursing program. 3.Renovate the Library into a multi-use, multi-functioning Innovation Center building. 4.Create new identifiable Campus entry/exit point off Howard Street and Atkins Road. Combine with a drop-off lane at the Library/Multi-Use Building. 5.Demolish former early child care structure. 6.Complete chilled water loop to the Residence Halls. 7.Renovate the existing Administration/Classroom Building for better student study areas and faculty interaction. 8.Landscape improvements at Parking Area #2. 9.Expand and renovate to accommodate the growing needs of the Technology Center, inclusive of skilled trades areas, and robotics/autonomous innovation space. 10.Create outdoor, convertible Pickleball courts at Parking Area #6. 11.Add trees to central courtyard to frame sculpture areas. 12.Construct informational pavilion at Natural Area Trailhead. 13.Update technology at Cheboygan and Gaylord satellite centers to aid in distance learning and live stream interactions. 14.Complete previously planned ring road around campus and to the baseball fields. 15.Provide addition onto Maintenance Building to house Campus Motor pool vehicles.Next >